Abstract

Estimation of bone fracture risk using FRAX model in some regions of Russian Federation

Author(s): Irina A. Skripnikova, Margarita A. Myagkova, Svetlana A. Shalnova, Alexander D. Deev & Oxana M. Drapkina

Purpose: To estimate the absolute risk (AR) of fractures in urban population of some Russian regions using Russia-specific FRAX^® model, as well as to evaluate therapeutic intervention threshold (TIT) adopted in Russia.

Material and methods: Representative samples of the population from 8 Russian cities included 9143 Russian residents (6324 women and 2819 men) aged 40-69 years (mean age 53.29 ± 0.02 years). AR of fractures was calculated without BMD using the batch processing of data.

Results: The average AR of major fractures (MF) was 7.8% (8.9% in women and 5.5% in men, p=0,0001), hip fractures (HF) – 0.7% (0.9% in women and 0.4% in men, p=0.0001). In women AR was higher in all age groups across all cities in comparison with that in men both for MF and HF. The proportion of individuals who had a previous fragility fractures was 15.2% and 30.6% from them were determined to be in a highrisk of fractures zone and 69.4% - in the low-risk of fractures zone.

Conclusion: The average AR of MF and HF increased with age regardless of participants’ gender, and were significantly higher among female population. The majority of the respondents with the previous fragility fractures have been included into the low-risk of fractures zone, which implies the low sensitivity of the TIT currently established for country.