Evaluation of the achievement of the goals of the Strategic Action Plan for Coping with Chronic Diseases in Brazil, 2011-2022

Deborah Carvalho Malta

Brazil

Abstract

Objective: to evaluate the achievement of targets for mortality rates and prevalence of exposure to risk and protection factors defined in the Strategic Action Plan for Coping with Noncommunicable Diseases in Brazil, 2011-2022.

Methods: evaluative study, analyzing trends in mortality and risk factors for NCD according to data from the Global Burden of Disease and the phone survey. Linear regression and significance level of 5% were used.

Results: The premature mortality rate for all NCDs in the period of 2011 to 2014 was higher than the reduction target of 2% per year. In 2016 and 2017, the trend reversed and mortality rates increased. there was an increase in mortality. Different projections were made for the NCD mortality rates for 2022. In scenario 1 and 2, considering the trends that occurred until 2014, it is projected to reduce rates and reach the goals of the year. In scenario 3, considering the trends between 2015 and 2017, the projection resulted in a reversal of the trend and an increase in the premature NCD mortality rate of 22.7%, or not meeting the targets. Possibly due to the austerity measures implemented in Brazil and the increase in poverty. (Figure 1).

Regarding the risk factors, favorable trends in the period from 2010 to 2014 were reversed in 2015 to 2018. It was verified from the data trends that the goals of reducing obesity, alcohol consumption, hypertension and diabetes as well as increased of the Papanicolau exam should not be met by 2022.

Conclusion: Observation time is still short, but the increase in mortality rates and worsening risk factors presented here, together with other existing evidence, indicate that the economic crisis, the austerity measures implemented by the Brazilian government have made the NCD worse. indicators. Choosing not to apply regulatory measures for the control of ultra-processed foods, coping with alcohol and tobacco may result in negative effects on the control of NCDs and their risk factors and may also affect the achievement of the targets set in the NCD Brazil plan, the WHO NCD Global targets and SDG targets.

Biography

Anum Liaquat Ali is a researcher working in Brazil whose research interest lies in Chronic Diseases.